Turan, Washington, 28 Jul 2008 – Two leading American political Institutions, the influential Foreign Policy magazine and the Fund for Peace published a new (fourth) expert rating of the Failed States Index 2008. It reflects disability of the authorities to control the territory, demographic, political and economic situation in the country. The first in the list (Rank 35) are the most unfavorable states led by Somali. Fifteen countries led by Norway form a zone of welfare and stability of state institutes.
The Failed States Index has been published since 2005. The experts analyze the situation in the countries with estimated conflicts (Conflict Assessment System Tool). Analysis is made on the basis of 12 criteria: 1. growing demographic pressure; 2. mass migration of refugees and/or of internally displaced people; 3.the presence of unsatisfied people; 4. stable and permanent migration of people; 5. unequal economic development; 6. sharp worsening of the economy; 7. illegality and criminalization of the state; 8. deterioration of the quality of public services; 9. violation of human rights; 10. danger of the emerging of a “state in state”; 11. strengthening of group and/or clan elites; 12. interference of other states. The opportunities of five key state institutes are estimated – political leadership, army, police, court system and civil service – to provide the safety of states and its citizens. The most failed state in the world is Somali (last year it was Sudan).
The first five, except Somali, includes: Sudan which ranks second, Zimbabwe – third, Chad – fourth and Iraq – fifth. This year Sudan is on the second place due to some improvement of the humanitarian situation in the conflict zone of Darfur. Zimbabwe is on the third place due to the sharp worsening of the economic situation. Thus, IMF noted that inflation in this country totals 150000%. Under such conditions a product bought in the first half of the day can cost two times more in the second half of the day. Some progress is observed in Iraq ; in 2007 it ranked the second. The improvement is explained with the presence of the U.S. military forces and some stabilization of the situation, but it is too early to speak about long-term improvement of the situation in this country.
The list of the most failed states includes Afghanistan occupied by the armed forces of the USA and its allies (ranks seventh), Pakistan having nuclear weapons (ranks ninth) and Northern Korea (ranks 15th). The only failed country in the Western hemisphere is Haiti (14th) and Uzbekistan (26th) is the only former post-soviet country on the list. The leadership on the presence of failed countries again belongs to Africa – the first seven countries in the top ten are African countries located to the South of Sahara. In the total index of 177 countries there are 91 countries with a moderate level of instability. Russia on this list ranks 72nd; a year ago it was on the 62nd place together with Azerbaijan , China and Lesotho . Now Russia ranks with Swaziland (ranks 72nd) and the Comoros (74th). It is strange that the experts included the Comoros into the list of capable countries, because this small Islamic state in the west of the Indian Ocean is considered one of the poorest countries in Africa with a great number of attempts of military coups.
The worst positions among the post-Soviet republics are at Uzbekistan (ranks 26th), Tajikistan (38th), Kyrgyzstan (39th) and Turkmenistan – 46th. Moldavia ranks 50th (the most unstable state in Europe), Belarus – 53rd, Georgia – 56th, Azerbaijan – 64th, Kazakhstan – 101st, Ukraine – 108th, and Armenia – 109th.
For comparison: the list with a moderate level of instability includes such countries as Egypt – 40th, Iran – 49, Indonesia – 60, China – 68, Cuba – 76, Thailand – 89, Turkey – 92, Mexico – 105, Brazil – 117, and the Bahamas – 127. The authors note that Israel ranks 58th among the 60 less stable countries. It is connected with the tension on the Western Bank of the Jordan River , the total economic inequality of Jewish and Arabian population of the country, and other problems.
The list of stable countries includes 34 states from the 128th to the 162nd places. The first ranks Romania (128), and the last is Portugal (162). All the Baltic States are included into the list of stable countries: Latvia – 136, Estonia – 139, Lithuania – 143. Mongolia has 133, the UAE has 138, Poland has 145, Greece has 147, the Czech Republic has 149, South Korea has 153, Italy has 154, Germany has 155, France has 158, Great Britain has 160, and the USA has 161.
The states which rank 163 to 177 are considered the most stable and good for normal human life. They are fifteen counties: Japan (163), Belgium (164), Luxemburg (165), the Netherlands (166), Canada (167), Austria (168), Australia (169), Denmark (170), New Zealand (171), Iceland (172), Switzerland (173), Ireland (174), Sweden (175), Finland (176) and Norway (177).
Despite the lowering number of international conflicts, the political instability in the world is increasing, and the power institutes in a number of states are degrading. According to some experts, more than 2 billion people live in instable countries on the edge of political and economic crises.
The American scientist, linguist and political expert, Noam Chomsky summed up some characteristic features of failed state in this way: first, it is disability or unwillingness of state to protect its citizens from violence and death. Secondly, it is inclination of authorities to see them above the law – both national and international. Thirdly, such a state suffers a serious deficit of democracy which “deprives formal democratic institutes of their real content.”
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The world has expected so much from Azerbaijan probably in recent years. Azerbaijan a relatively small country with a vast wealth at her hands yet series of factors has undermined the proper development of these republic. So many observers will attribute the failed nature of the republic to the many years of Russia presence in the Republic, but the argument still holds that despite Russia influence, with the proper policy in place, Azerbaijan should have made positive strides instead of been labeled a failed State